The Hype Cycle Playbook
All 27 Roles
Every technology wave — crypto, AI, open source, whatever comes next — produces the same 27 roles across 6 categories. Four of them split into two subtypes that follow different paths (shown together below). Most people default into one role without choosing; the assessment helps you find yours.
The Scientist
2 subtypes
Builds the foundational technology on which the entire cycle is based
Salaried researcher inside an organized research function — publishes, wins grants, builds citation impact
Implements products and systems on top of foundational technology
Earns via: Salary at funded companies, freelance at premium rates during hype phases, equity in early-stage projects, or building their own product over time.
Builds publicly, generating reputation and ecosystem effects
Earns via: Grants and sponsorships (often minimal in early phases)
The Founder
2 subtypes
Builds bootstrapped, autonomous businesses optimizing for freedom and recurring revenue
Read the deep-dive →
Founds VC-backed companies optimizing for market dominance and exit
Owns the what and why of a product — translates between users, business, and engineering
Earns via: Salary plus equity at funded companies
Sells specific products within the ecosystem, lives by the pipeline
Earns via: Base salary plus commission (typically 10-30% of deal value)
The Consultant
2 subtypes
Sells ideas — frameworks, analyses, board-level recommendations under a firm's brand
Sells delivery — the working system, the rollout, the change under measurable KPIs
The Freelancer
2 subtypes
The solo vehicle for advisory work — sells frameworks and diagnostics under own name, no firm brand
The solo vehicle for execution work — sells delivery skills under own name, project by project
Understands patterns, evaluates technologies and markets
Earns via: Employment at VC or research firms
Controls information flow, builds reach and narratives
Earns via: Salary at editorial outlets
Translates complexity into clarity, builds audience as cumulative asset
Earns via: YouTube AdSense
Filters and structures information flow — databases and leaderboards
Earns via: Advertising
Builds networks and ecosystems that generate convertible social capital
Earns via: Sponsorships, donations, small-ticket events (often minimal). Primary value is indirect: social capital that converts into founding, investing, and advisory opportunities.
Monetizes the hype directly through events, tickets, and sponsorships
Earns via: Ticket revenue
Connects actors who wouldn't otherwise meet — produces nothing, controls everything
Earns via: Finder's fees
Profits from the talent scarcity that every hype phase creates
Earns via: Placement fees (typically 20-30% of placed candidate's annual salary)
Provides capital and profits from all other roles — strongest leverage position
Earns via: 2% management fee + 20% performance fee on gains
The 'shovel sellers' — earns regardless of which end-products succeed
Earns via: Hosting fees
Optimizes price differentials and cost structures between markets
Cycle-specific — a first-class path essentially only in Crypto (it needs a liquid two-sided market to trade). In other hype cycles it's temperament, not a live path, so it's held out of your recommendations.
Earns via: Trading profits from price differential capture
Brings new technology into existing organizations — the Chief AI Officer role
Earns via: Salary and bonus at large organizations
Works at the intersection of technology and government
Earns via: Salary at policy organizations
Earns from regulatory complexity regardless of technology outcome
Earns via: Billable hours (typically $500-$1,500/h for technology specialists)
Sits on the government side and defines the rules for everyone else
Earns via: Government salary (typically lower than private sector)
The 24th figure — the one to recognize, not become
The Charlatan is the anti-type. It is deliberately not one of the 27 roles, because it is not a career play with real upside — it extracts value through deception rather than contribution. Every hype cycle produces it, and the assessment never scores you as one. It is here so you can spot it across the table. The five subtypes differ by extraction mechanism, not personality — the same person can move between them across cycles.
The Alchemist
Sells a technology that doesn't work as though it does
How to spot it: Ask for the independent test: can the product be verified by someone with no stake in it? If every look behind the curtain is blocked, you have your answer.
The Costume Changer
Dresses a working but boring technology up as a revolution
How to spot it: Ask exactly what is new here versus the boring technology underneath. If the only new thing is the label, it's a costume.
The Time Traveler
Sells a technology that might work someday as production-ready
How to spot it: Check the timeline against the data: has this exact 'next year' claim been made before? Search-interest history usually shows the same promise repeating without arrival.
The Freeloader
Latches onto a real trend and sells access, courses, or tools for it
How to spot it: Ask for the track record behind the course: what has this person actually shipped or deployed, beyond teaching others to?
The Statesman
The most dangerous subtype: charlatanry shielded by institutional legitimacy
How to spot it: Strip the title and re-read the claim: would it survive if a no-name startup said it? If the credibility is all in the institution, look at the substance, not the sender.
Which one are you?
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